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2016 Australian output will be the same as estimated as the beginning of the year, which doesn't help supply conditions, warns Tim Murray, managing partner at J Capital Research. on CNBC Asia, April 20th, 2016.
The Chinese stock market is a "roach motel for capital,” Anne Stevenson-Yang told The New York Times on September 9. "The Chinese government wants you to 'buy high, hold indefinitely,' or else," says Anne Stevenson-Yang in Barron's on September 5, 2015. NBC News talks about how the stock market debacle and the Tianjin tragedy have battered government credibility. August 28, 2015. Everything you've heard about the Chinese stock market is wrong, says Carlo Reiter in Quartz, August 27, 2015. It's all about avoiding a financial crisis. The current slump in copper prices is only the start of weak demand for commodities, says company co-founder Tim Murray in The Globe and Mail, August 30, 2015. Steel production in China is contracting for the first time since 1990 and the industry will be getting a good deal smaller, according to J Cap co-founder and commodities analyst Tim Murray speaking to Bloomberg on August 12, 2015. Credibility problems for the government are exacerbating the problems in the Chinese economy, according to J Capital analyst Kevin Yeoh in the Sydney Morning Herald August 24, 2015. "Yet Carlo Reiter of Beijing-based J Capital Research has a different take. In a research note, he argues the PBOC sold between $56 billion to $106 billion in foreign exchange in February to protect the renminbi...All this suggests the yuan, in reality, is under severe pressure." Forbes, April 26, 2015. "In gross domestic product terms, none of this is bad. It generates growth, one way or another," said J Capital Research analyst Susannah Kroeber, who has been tracking China's infrastructure build-out since 2012. "But is it useful and an efficient use of your resources? Absolutely not." Reuters, April 9, 2015.
As per Anne Stevenson-Yang, if “a bullish stock market is likely to end up as one more source of collateral for property and its associated financial derivatives, and the government’s initiative to push money toward households will create a connecting channel between the twin casinos of underground lending and the stock market.” FT Alphaville, March 26, 2015.
"Tim Murray, managing director of Beijing-based J Capital Research, has developed fresh modelling that estimates the break-even cost for the Sino Iron mine is $US70 a tonne — well above the current iron ore price of $US55 a tonne." The Australian, March 24, 2015.
"What caused my double take was a fascinating presentation by Anne Stevenson-Yang, Co-Founder of JCap and author of China Alone: The Emergence from, and Potential Return to Isolation." Generous comment by Mish Shedlock.
“Do people know what they’re buying?” said Kevin Yeoh, managing director at J Capital Research. “With financial innovation in China, there’s some skepticism initially, but gradually a crowd builds up around it and those that think they are in the know, think they know which are more reputable, when none of them are that reputable." Bloomberg. February 12, 2015.
Anne Stevenson-Yang on Kaisa in the WSJ: "Default with Chinese Characteristics." Wall Street Journal. February 5, 2015.
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"Few foreigners know China as intimately as Anne Stevenson-Yang does." Profile of Anne in Barrons. December 6, 2014.
"'There is now an industry, employing tens of thousands of Chinese, devoted to executing faked online purchases,' according to Kitty Ma, J Capital Researcher." Forbes. November 30, 2014. "Going forward, it's unlikely that we'll see the sort of huge rise in property prices which we saw in the past.” Qin Shengxian, Analyst. Channel News Asia. November 28, 2014. “Looks like the Shanghai market had rallied in anticipation and those who had already bought [then] sold to the new Northbound investors when Connect started.” Kevin Yeoh, Managing Director, Asia. Quartz. November 23, 2014. "The company’s financial reports suggest these debts shift into the accounts receivables line if the notes fail to perform, putting the onus of recovery on the company" Kevin Yeoh, Managing Director, Asia. The Wall Street Journal. October 14, 2014.
"FTZs create corporate black boxes through which the anointed may flow money in and out of China" Anne Stevenson-Yang, Research Director. Financial Times. September 26, 2014.
"Chinese state-owned miners have increased production a tenth so far this year, according to J Capital." Tim Murray, Managing Partner. Financial Times - Lex. September 22, 2014.
"Steel mills have told me that they are unlikely to restock at the levels we have seen in previous years during the northern winter." Tim Murray, Managing Partner. Nikkei. September 22, 2014.
"The numbers for the growth expected out of Alibaba, particularly given that it's already 85% of the market, really don't make a lot of sense." Anne Stevenson-Yang, Research Director. CNBC. September 19, 2014.
"I think it's really difficult to say how much traction [Alibaba is] gonna get, just because, Amazon and eBay have such strong mind-share with consumers. I anticipate it will be expensive." Jeff Dorr, Analyst. Euronews. September 19, 2014.
"There's been a massive oversupply and very high inventory levels in all of the inland coal-producing provinces." Susannah Kroeber, Analyst. Sydney Morning Herald. September 17, 2014.
"With weak domestic steel demand and no restocking, we do not expect a rally in iron ore prices this year ... prices will be pushing lower.” Tim Murray, Managing Partner. Australian Financial Review. September 16, 2014.
"Alibaba is really a financial services company, not really a product sales company." Anne Stevenson-Yang, Research Director. Australian Financial Review. September 11, 2014.
"It's difficult to say whether or not Alibaba has really made the right choices and done the amount of diligence [it] should have with all these acquisitions." Jeff Dorr, Analyst. CNBC. September 7, 2014.
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Watch Anne Stevenson-Yang's presentation, "China Reality Check: Has the Hard Landing Already Started?" at CSIS in Washington, D.C. February 20, 2015, below.
Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, says China's demand for commodities is partly driven by the need for physical collateral, such as gold, to finance business. She talks to the FT's Neil Hume at Camp Alphaville in London.
"The worst thing that could happen is that people could wake up one day and find that their money is gone." Anne Stevenson-Yang, China's Real Estate Bubble. 60 Minutes, March 3, 2013. Watch below.
In China Alone: The Emergence from and Potential Return to Isolation, Anne Stevenson-Yang argues that China's historically repeats a cycle of expansion and retreat. The book is available here.
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